Electric car sales will equal combustion cars by 2036 in the United States

  • Sales of electric cars will equal those of combustion cars in the United States in 2036, according to a Bloomberg report.
  • Millennials and government incentives will be key to the growth of clean mobility.
  • Germany leads Europe, having sold 398,000 electric cars in 2020.

Of the 78 million vehicles sold worldwide in 2020, 3.2 million were electric, according to the manufacturers’ organization OICA – and that growth looks set to continue to accelerate over the next decade.

A study by consulting firm Ernst & Young (EY) claims that in just eight years, by 2028, more zero-emission vehicles will be sold in Europe than combustion vehicles.

This threshold will be reached in 2033 in China and in 2036 in the United States.

Europe became the world’s largest electric car market in 2020 after tripling 2019 figures in the pandemic year from 589,000 units to nearly 1.4 million vehicles – Germany led the way , having sold 398,000 units, according to MG News.

European countries combined have even gone so far as to overtake China, which was the main market for electric vehicles – in 2020, 1.34 million electric cars were sold in China, according to S&P Global.

According to the potential scenario described by EY, which was predicted using an artificial intelligence tool, in just a decade, electric vehicles will overtake combustion vehicles in major global markets.

In 25 years, by 2045, sales of non-electric cars will represent barely 1% of the global market.

The keys to this progress are the brands’ aggressive policies for the electrification of their fleets – General Motors has already announced that from 2035 it will only sell electric cars, and the Swedish company Volvo, owned by Geely in China , will stop producing combustion vehicles in 2030 and will only sell online.

Government incentives for the purchase of electric vehicles, especially in Europe and the United States, are also playing a key role in this acceleration.

EY also identified a major millennial push, with 30% of respondents ready to buy an electric car, after the pandemic hit public transport and even shared mobility services.

“The perspective of the millennials that we see is clearly more inclined to want to buy electric vehicles,” said Randy Miller, global head of advanced manufacturing and mobility at EY, according to Bloomberg.

In the United States, the situation changed with the arrival of the Biden administration.

“The regulatory environment for the Biden administration will be a great contribution because it has ambitious goals,” Miller added.

A study by consulting firm BlastPoint released earlier this year already predicted a 71% increase in electric vehicle sales in the United States, due to the impact of Biden’s arrival and his commitment to the concerns. environmental.

In Europe, it is precisely this dependence on subsidies that has sparked some skepticism on the part of analysts, as they consider the electric vehicle market to be “extremely sensitive to government and corporate rebates,” said Arndt Allinghorst, analyst at Bernstein Research, according to Market. Filter.

Even the CEOs of some manufacturers like Volvo’s Hakan Samuelsson, who spoke to the Wall Street Journal in February 2021, admit that these subsidies are “an incentive” that makes electricity “very attractive to consumers.”

“In the long run, these tax incentives and benefits are not sustainable,” he added.

Kevin A. Perras

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